August 21, 2017

Amended Improvements & Higher Costs of Soryu Mark IIs Over Mark Is

Based on Anonymous comments of August 11-12, 2017 I have compiled TABLE 1 below. For an overview of the Soryu program see TABLE 2 below that:

Soryu Mark IIs are likely to cost more than US$91 million = 10 Billion (B) Yen (¥) than Soryu Mark Is, due to new:
-  LIB batteries replacing (LABs+Stirling AIP) and diesel generator sets (gensets) for greater power
   generation, and
-  sonar systems for improved detection of the enemy and for better submerged navigation-by-sonar

Anonymous on August 18-21, 2017 kindly provided amendments direct to Pete for TABLE 1 and the footnotes below it. 

TABLE 1 [Amendments in Green and Violet]]

Item/Submarine Type
Soryu Mark I
Soryu Mark II (27SS & 28SS)
Comments
SS order number
26SS
27SS
28SS
See Soryu Table below
Batteries + AIP (where applicable)
LABs + Stiling AIP
NCA-LIBs [1]
ß

Cost of battery/Soryu in Billion Yen (\***B) [2]
LABs \1.44B
NCA-LIBs \8.3B
ß
LIBs per Soryu almost 6 times costs of LABs
Relative price to LABs [3]
1
4.8 (576 LIBs)
5.8 (480 LIBs)
ß

Specific energy (Wh/kg) [4]
40-60
240
ß
LIBs have 4-6 x the specific energy of LABs
Total cost per Soyu in Billion Yen [5]
\51.7B
\64.4B
\63.6B

Building cost [6]
\31.2B
\38.7B
\35.9B

(a)Cost of customer-supplied products [7]
\20.5B
\25.7B
\27.7B

(b)LABs or LIBs
\1.44B
\8.3B
\8.3B

(c)Stirling AIP
\2.72B
0
0
Estimation value
(d)=(a)-(b)-(c) [8]
 \16.3B
\17.4B
\19.4B
Estimation value
(e)Sonars
\3-4B
+w B
+x B
Estimation value
(f)Generators
\2B
+y B
+z B
Estimation value
(g)Propulsion motor [10]
\1.3B (25SS)
\1.2B
\1.0B


[1]  The Soryu Mark IIs (27SS and 28SS) will likely be equipped with (NCA LIBs) Lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide ( LiNiCoAlO2 ) made by GS Yuasa.
 
[2]  According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s (MOD's) Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) the costs of LABs and NCA-LIBs are reported to be 1.44 ¥B and 8.3 ¥B, respectively. This makes NCA-LIBs just under 6 times more expensive than LABs for each Soryu sub. But, in terms of cost/performance (see [3]), NCA-LIBs are not overly expensive.

[3]  More precisely, price ratio of LAB to NCA-LIB is 4.8 and 5.8 for 576 and 480 LIBs in Soryu Mark II, respectively.

[4]  Specific energy of NCA-LIBs are 240 Wh/kg and LABs are 40-60 Wh/kg. The specific energy of NCA-LIBs are 4 to 6 times that of LABs, nearly the same as the above mentioned price raitio.

[5]  Soryu Mark IIs will cost ¥12-13B more than Mark Is. That cost increase is due to major Soryu Mark II enhancements, including LIBs, new snorkel generation system, new gensets and new sonar system.

[6]  In Japanese submarine building, the MOD offers customer-supplied products to the builders (KHI and MHI) for cost reduction and the MOD pays building costs. Building costs consist of materials, labor and utilities (water, electricity, etc) etc.

[7]  Customer-supplied products include the command system, weapon/sensor system, communication system and propulsion/generater/battery system. Building costs consist of materials, labor, utilities (water, electricity, etc) etc.

[8]  (c) is changes in customer-supplied products, except AIP + batteries. This gives some insights into other modifications. In the Soryu Mark II, priority in modifications is orientated towards the performance of the LIBs. In terms of changes in (d), the snorkel generation system and gensets are modified for 27SS and the sonar system is also modified for 28SS, I believe.

[9]  The Japanese submarine builders (KHI and MHI) cannot earn much because of strict budget management by the MOD. But, the cost of Japanese submarines may provide some insight into the price of other convensional submarines. The size of submarines will affect the cost of submarine building more than the cost of customer-supplied products. Even very small submarines need a  command system, weapon/sensor system, communication system and propulsion/generater/battery system. 

But, in the small submarine building process, amounts of materials, labor (in man days) and utilities can be reduced. In submarines half the size of the Soryu, building costs become significantly lower and other costs become a bit lower, Y20-25B and Y10B, respecrively. The purchaser can buy the latest small submarine for Y30-35B. If a submarine builders can sell subs for Y50-60B, they can make high profits. That is why bribe scandals are prominent.

[10] The propusion system consists of one small motor and one large motor in the Soryu Mark I. The small motor  is used at low speed and the two motors are used at high speed. Soryu Mark II is likely to be equipped with two same large motors. If these Soryu Mark II armatures are larger a higher speed performance is expected.

 TABLE 2 - Overview of SORYU (& Oyashio) Programs as at August 15, 2017
SS
No.
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi-ssioned
Built
By
5SS Oyashio
8105 Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios
10 subs
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Soryu Mk 1
8116
Sōryū
SS-501
¥60B FY2004
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
No
21SS
No 21SS built
22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
Seiryū
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct 2016
Mar? 2018
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
LABs + AIP
2014
?
Mar 2019?
KHI
27SS First
Soryu Mk 2
8126
SS-511
LIBs only
2015
2017?
Mar
2020
MHI
28SS  Second
Soryu Mark 2
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
LIBs only
2016?
2018?
Mar 2021?
KHI
29SS First of
New Class
?
?
¥76B FY2018
LIBs only
?
?
2023?
MHI?
Table courtesy of exclusive information provided to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP=air independent propulsion, LIBs=lithium-ion batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen.


Anonymous and Pete

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

On table 1 [6], costs of diesel generators and sonar system for Soryu Mark I (not Mark II) are ca.2 and 3-4 B JPY, respectively. Major improvement except LIBs for Soryu Mark II is snorkel generation system including diesel generators and sonar system, and thier costs seems to be much higher than those (2 and 3-4 B JPY) for Soryu Mark I, suggesting significant enhancement in performances of snorkel/diesels and sonar system in Soryu Mark II.

Regards

Peter Coates said...

Thanks Anonymous

I have made corrections in Table 1 and in footnotes [5] and [6].

Regards

Pete

GhalibKabir said...

probably one of the few truly 'nearly' ocean going DE subs.

my gripe is the cost esp. if any sort of local production is envisaged it will with near 100% certainty double the price esp. if the Japanese or for that matter the Frenchies are involved.(with DCNS the Aussies are stuck I think just as they would have if the Soryus been chosen)

Plus the life cycle costs and the service time lost in the multiple transits back to get batteries and diesels serviced etc will make for even more eye watering amounts getting spent for DCNS boats or the Soryus or the Type 216 for that matter...

The Aussies imho are better with an all SSN fleet for ocean faring...They should just get 3-4 off the shelf Type-214s for EEZ level defence and get 3-4 SSNs for ocean going roles

I am afraid the Shortfin Barracuda DE sub is going to be no less cheaper than the Soryus eventually. If I could, I would grab the Barracuda if the Frenchies could be convinced to sell the SSN version and not the damned white elephant shortfin.

Peter Coates said...

Hi GhalibKabir

I agree there's no way Australia could/can/will build and maintain tailormade SSKs without high costs and great procedural complexity.

Australia, with a fraction of India's current and future GDP can/could not afford nuclear propulsion without excessive defence spending.

Also the threat profile against Australia makes even only 4 Barracuda SSNs (+ 4 medium SSKs) too expensive yet too small a force against Russia and future China SSN-SSBN forces.

If Australia wanted to counter nuclear threats against Australia we would need nuclear armed SSGNs with 35 year no need for refuel in distant foreign port reactors. That would rule out Barracuda's K15 7-10 year to refuel reactor. This would point to the reactors on Virginias and Astutes.

All this is a well established circular debate, of course.

Cheers

Pete

Anonymous said...

I am led to believe that due to the non proliferation treaty, Australia can not get access to the reactors used by the Astute & Virginia classes as they use weapons grade fuel (the reason their reactors don't need refueling, but also meaning the fuel is ready made for weapons). The Barracuda class however uses commercial grade fuel similar to Lucas Heights. While Australian public might eventually come on side for a SSN, going for nuke weapons is a another matter entirely (although Australia has the know how to do so).

Anonymous said...

Accident again this time in SCS. USS McCain, an Arleigh Burke destroyer, was hit by a tanker on its port side just a few days after USS McCain did a FOP mission near Mischief reef in the Spratly's.
KQN

suffolkowner said...

Hi Peter

I am interested in your opinion on the following idea as a power option

http://defence.frontline.online/blogs/3896-Dr.%20Danny-Lam/7909-Hybrid%20submarines%2C%20an%20efficient%20alternative

Peter Coates said...

Hi suffolkowner

Australia is not really part of even a HYBRID nuclar propulsion debate as many more details would need to be presented.

The cost and complexity of building new style submarines with a New propulsion systems (eg. LIBs is but one component) is always very high. "Nuclear-steam-electric hybrid" mentioned in http://defence.frontline.online/blogs/3896-Dr.%20Danny-Lam/7909-Hybrid%20submarines%2C%20an%20efficient%20alternative
would be far more ambitious than LIBs.

It is up to the proposers to develop, test, trial, argue and prove new marine propulsion systems. Sometimes proposers are well placed, like Rickover.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Acquisition, Technology & Logistic Agency (ATLA) of Japan classifies specification of Japanese submarine build-number 8128 (29SS submarine) as revision, suggesting 29SS being modified version of 28SS of Soryu Mark II.

Though many modifications will be conducted in next Japanese submarines (29SS-), they essenitially belong to Soryu Mark III. Basic design/concept of Japanese submarine has been established, and next submarine is based on this design/concept.

Regards

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Japan MOD announced FY 2018 budget on Aug/31/2017. Based on FY 2017 and 2018 budget, table 2 can be revised as follows.

(1)Correction of 29SS; i) “Build No” is 8128; “MoF approved amount Yen Billions & FY” is JPY 76 (7.6*)B FY2017.

(2)Addition of 30SS; i) “Build No” is 8029?; MoF approved amount Yen Billions & FY” is JPY 71.5 (2.3*)B FY2018 (submitted).

*Figure in bracket is first year cost such as new epuipments, and is excluded number. In other words, real budgets of 29SS and 30SS are 83.6 (=76 + 7.6) and 73.8 (=71.5 + 2.3) JPY B, respectively. First year cost for both 29SS and 30SS means that builders of the two submarines are different.

(3)For application in future 29SS-type submarine, budget for study on a new silent driving system is submitted.

Regards

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Ex-commander of submarine fleet Masao Kobayashi told that 29SS was upgrade version of Soryu, where optimization of LIBs, improvement of sonar system and other performance would be taken place [1]. So, we can call 29SS as Soryu Mark III.

[1] SHIPS OF THE WORLD, 2017, October.

Regards

Peter Coates said...

Hi Anonymous [at 4/9/17 6:30 PM]

I'll put the revisions in an updated Table "Overview of SORYU Program..." later this week.

Regards

Pete