November 23, 2016

Two Articles 1. Kuznetsov, 2. Nuclear South Korea, Will be Done

Great footage of Kuznetsov carrier operations.
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Submarine Matters aims to do 2 articles once a wide range of regional Trump Won briefings to Government have ended. Submarine Matters articles will include.

1. Implications of Russian Carrier Kuznetsov Airstrikes on Islamists in Syria, and

2. mainly South Korea Developing Nuclear Weapons and Propulsion (Japan?)

Regards

Pete

November 20, 2016

Chinese Intelligence Presence in Australia [New Comment]



COMMENT 

China’s Military-PLA Intelligence and also Civilian Intelligence (Ministry of State Security (MSS)) are doing an excellent job in Australia. This includes human intelligence (HUMINT) Case Officers. Such officers direct, or at least debrief, some in the following groups who live in or are travelling through Australia. Such intelligence collection groups might include some Chinese who are:

-  students (especially graduate, post-graduate level working in "dual-use" high tech areas)
-  academics, scientists (PhD on up) especially on high tech.
-  engineers, business people (targets as above)
-  journalists (usually official news agencies) also useful for influence spreading
-  pro-China Australian citizens (including some politicians)
-  "diplomats" and defence attaches (may be involved in directing and debriefing those categories
    above), See article below.
-  Chinese, China based government officials of all types active in directing and/or debriefing
    Chinese (or non-Chinese Aussies?) travellers/residents, who were/are/will be, in Australia.

Intelligence gathering is a standard assumption. Intelligence might more often be collected in fragments (ie. bit by bit collection from all sources and methods). This is in contrast to the popular assumption of fully paid-up, dedicated human agents/moles (often with false identities) in the John le Carré "Soviet bloc tradition". 

Other Chinese activities-objectives may include:

-  spreading pro-Beijing political influence through "Agents of Influence". More specifically China
   may influence Australian politics and perhaps compromise Australian politicians (recent 
   concern?), and

-  security monitoring by Chinese diplomats (helped by informants) of any/all of the Chinese groups
    while in Australia. This is monitoring particulary of Chinese deemed to be involved in:
   :  anti-Beijing Government causes
   :  anti-Communist
   ;  pro-democracy
   :  pro-Tibet
   :  Falun Gong or
   :  some Christian influences).

China is not the only security/influence/intelligence threat to  Australia, of course. 

BACKGROUND AND ARTICLE

Regarding Chinese Government special political and intelligence activity in Australia, 2008 to the present. In 2008 Chinese diplomats organised and payed costs of at least 10,000 pro-Beijing supporters (Chinese students) (see photo above). The students travelled 100's of kms, from Sydney and Melbourne to Canberra (Australia's capital). This was for a 2 hour "spontaneous" loyalty demonstration. Pro-Tibet democracy protesters were crowded out and intimidated as were Australian police. The occasion was the pro-Beijing Olympics (2008) Torch Relay. Location was the usually Australian Federal Government controlled Federal Triangle, Canberra, 24 April 2008. 

Just imagine if the Australian Embassy tried to do the same "support" protest organising in Beijing? Tiananmen Square II? (Photo courtesy Getty images). 


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Andrew Greene, for Australia’s government financed news agency ABC Online, reported on 20 November 2016. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-20/how-many-spies-does-china-have-in-australia/8041004 :

“Chinese spies in Australia on the rise, former diplomat Chen Yonglin says”

Chen Yonglin, the Chinese diplomat who sensationally quit his job [at the Chinese consulate in Sydney Australia, in 2005] more than a decade ago, has broken a lengthy silence to warn of a growing number of spies and agents working for Beijing in Australia.

Key points:

-  Chen Yonglin successfully sought political asylum in Australia after resigning his diplomat role
-  Warned more that 1,000 Chinese spies in Australia
-  Says "majority of Chinese community representatives" work for [Chinese] Government
-  In 2005, Mr Chen caused global headlines when he claimed China was operating a network of
   "over 1,000 Chinese secret agents and informants in Australia".

The former diplomat, who now works as a businessman, [Chen] has warned the number of secretive Chinese operatives has steadily grown since he stopped working for China's foreign service.

"There should be some increase after over 10 years because China is now the wealthiest government in the world, they should have money, they should be [able] to afford raise a huge number of spies here," he told ABC News.

He stressed the increase was mainly in casual informants who provided crucial pieces of intelligence to Beijing.

Since successfully seeking political asylum in Australia, Mr Chen said he had become growingly concerned about Beijing's influence in his new home.

He believes that of particular concern is last year's decision to approve a 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to Chinese-owned company Landbridge [presumably this will be a great job opening for Chinese Military Intelligence, performing under cover in Darwin. Great job :]


"I think it's very stupid. It's common sense that Darwin Port is strategically important and against the northern invasion," he said.

Mr Chen has also hit out at activists who have recently taken to the streets to show support for China's military expansion in the South China Sea.

"A majority of Chinese community representatives work for the Chinese Government," he said. ENDS

TWO REFERENCES:

-  My On Line Opinion article of 5 May 2008 Embracing China involves risks for Australia about
   possible Chinese intelligence involvement in Chinese student mobilisation in Australia. In it I give
   some emphasis to Chen Yonglin's revelations about Chinese intelligence activities.


and 

-  A major Sydney Morning Herald article of 7 May 2009, Defence 'rejected' minister spy link
    concerns

Pete

November 16, 2016

Japan will need to follow Australia's military example regarding the US

Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military
Updated 34 minutes ago
The [Australian] Federal Government says Australia is well positioned to take advantage of a "gigantic" expansion of the United States military flagged by the incoming Trump administration.
[Australian] Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also downplayed the prospect of the US demanding Australia increase its spending as a percentage of GDP.

Key points:

  • Rudy Giuliani flags an aggressive expansion of America's military
  • Government says as a close ally with the US the country is well positioned to benefit from the expansion
  • Christopher Pyne says Australia is "pulling its weight" in both military spending and operations
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is reportedly a leading contender to become the next US Secretary of State, flagged an aggressive expansion of American forces.
Mr Pyne said Australia's strong links with the US would benefit defence manufacturing at home.
He told a submarine industry conference in Canberra, based on comments by Donald Trump, a half-a-trillion-dollar expansion of the US military was possible.

"A hundred new planes, 70 new naval vessels, 50 to 60,000 new army, 12 new marine corps, the opportunities for Australia, because of our very close relationship with the United States, are boundless," he said.
"We already have amazing companies like Austal and CEA and others that are part of the US military spend, they could expand."
Mr Pyne said Australia was "pulling its weight" not just in military spending but in terms of military operations with the US.
"President-elect Trump has called countries around the world who are US allies and are not at 2 per cent [of spending] strategic bludgers," Mr Pyne said.
"Fortunately we are not strategic bludgers because we are at 2 per cent of gross domestic product, and given the spend of the Turnbull Government over the next 10 years, I imagine that will be surpassed at some stage in the future."
He said the Government was staying "in close contact" with Mr Trump's transition team.
"We are very much linked into the Trump team," Mr Pyne said.
Mr Giuliani earlier this week said Mr Trump's military strategy was focused around "peace through strength".
"If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetrical warfare, they may challenge you, but I doubt it," Mr Giuliani said.
"I am a big advocate of military spending."

Pete

November 14, 2016

Connection to all the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details

All the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details are revealed HERE, including:


“Prior to Trump's return to his private residence at Trump Tower around November 10, the United States Secret Service initiated "unbelievable security measures", including:

-  closing East 56th Street to all traffic
-  reinforcing a cordon of sand-laden dump trucks that had been placed around the building the night
   before to defend the site from being rammed with a car bomb, 
-  deploying New York City Police Department tactical teams around the skyscraper, and 
-  the FAA, meanwhile, ordered a flight restriction over midtown Manhattan.”

Security arrangements around Trump's "log cabin" frays New Yorkers. Look Trump owns the street.  He's a Billionaire, its HIS Tower and he's the Next Prez. Respect!
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Defense-Navy Related Transition Team Structure and Staff

The Transition Team is divided the work into two areas: "agency action" led by Ron Nicol (a former nuclear submarine officer) and "policy implementation"….The agency side, which oversees appointments, is divided into six arenas. Three relevant to Submarine Matters are:

-  National Security, led by former Rep. Mike Rogers [former Chairman of the Permanent Select

-  Defense, led by Keith Kellogg, the former commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division, and

-  RobertSmith Walker - former member of Congress from Pennsylvania and chair of the Hydrogen
   and Fuel Cell Technical Advisory Committee of the U.S. Department of Energy, is advising the
   transition on space policy"

Thankyou youtube and wikipedia :)

Pete

November 13, 2016

Russian Kilo subs and seabed sensors involved in 2 NATO submarines' detection


This depth-map indicates the choke-points (narrows) where both NATO submarines entered the Mediterranean Sea, ie. the US Virginia class through the Strait of Gibralter (on the map, extreme left) and the Dutch Walrus class (lower, right corner) near Port Said, Egypt.
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WALRUS (SSK) AND VIRGINIA (SSN) DETECTION DETAILS

Various Russian sensors were involved in the recent detection of two NATO submarines. Sensors included:

-  publically admitted, over-water (ASW helicopters) and surface ASW ships (see BACKGROUND)

-  (more secretly) Russian Kilo submarines, near stopped, operating at choke-points. 

-  equally secret were seafloor sensor arrays used: near the Strait of Gibraltar; another north of Port
   Said at the northern opening of the Suez Canal; and yet another outside of Russia's Tartus (Syria)

Russia's Main (Military) Intelligence Directorate (known as GRU) reported that a Dutch Walrus class submarine transiting the Suez Canal emerged into the Mediterranean Sea only to "rendezvous" with, be intercepted by, various ASW sensors.

GRU was already aware that the Dutch sub, after Indian Ocean regional ops, had then transited the  Suez Canal from south to north with a known time of emerging into the Med. This made it quite easy for a Kilo (from the Black Sea fleet) to cue or "rendezvous" with the Dutch sub. This Kilo gained valuable intelligence on characteristics of some upgrade work done on the Dutch sub.

The US Virginia class SSN had earlier been (predictably) tailing the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group from a range of 70km. As the Virginia class sub transited the Strait of Gibraltar (traveling from west to east into the Med) it was detected by a fixed seabed sensor array (perhaps in cooperation with local assistance). The detection was later confirmed by Russian helicopter dipping sonars (active) and ship bow sonars.

GRU further reported that, by their behaviour, the Walrus and Virginia class subs positively detected the presence of the Kilo subs.

BACKGROUND

Allen Cone, for UPI reported on 9 November 2016 "Russia: Dutch sub tried to approach, spy on aircraft carrier" http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/11/09/Russia-Dutch-sub-tried-to-approach-spy-on-aircraft-carrier/6431478701381/

"(MOSCOW, Nov. 9 (UPI)) -- A Dutch submarine attempted to spy on a Russian aircraft carrier after approaching it in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.

The Northern Fleet's anti-submarine ships forced the sub to leave the area near Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.

"The clumsy attempts to carry out dangeroumanoeuvres in the direct proximity of the Russian group of warships could have led to grave navigation consequences," he said.

He said two anti-submarine ships, Severomorsk and the Vice-Admiral Kulakov, at 6:50 a.m. spotted a Dutch navy sub, which neared the Northern Fleet's aircraft carrier group for surveillance purposes."

He said the crews "easily identified the submarine that was 20 kilometers [12.5 miles] away using the standard onboard hydroacoustics systems and data obtained from anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27 PL. Despite the submarine's attempts to evade surveillance, a stable hydroacoustic contact was established with it."

Konashenkov said they monitored the submarine for more than an hour and forced it to leave the carrier group.

"It is noteworthy that submarines of such class, having big displacement, are not fit for reconnaissance," the spokesman said.

The ministry official also said the Russian navy's aircraft carrier group regularly spotted NATO's submarines on its way to the Mediterranean.

Earlier this month, he said the USS Virginia was trying to spy on Russian vessels.

Last month, Russia's Northern Fleet's the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, accompanied by the Pyotr Veliky battle cruiser, the Severomorsk and Kulakov, and support vessel were sent to the Mediterranean to hold drills and strengthen capabilities."

Please connect with Submarine Matters articles:

-  Russia set to unleash carrier aircraft and SLCMs on IS in Syria of  31 October 2016, and 

-  Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov may conduct first airstrikes (against IS), October 17, 2016.

Pete