Submarine Matters provides an expanding database on submarines worldwide. Australia should contract in 2016 to only buy a batch of 6 Shortfins - then, in the 2030s, decide whether to buy: 6 more Shortfins or 6 Barracuda SSNs or 4 Virginia SSNs. With increasing numbers of Chinese, Russian and Indian SSNs in Australia's region Australia's Shortfins cannot attain any 2016 Defence White Paper goal of being "regionally superior". Australia would need to buy SSNs to be "superior".
China’s Military-PLA Intelligenceand also Civilian Intelligence (Ministry of State Security (MSS)) are doing an excellent job in Australia. This includes human intelligence (HUMINT) Case Officers. Such officers direct, or at least debrief, some in the following groups who live in or are travelling through Australia. Such intelligence collection groups might include some Chinese who are:
- students (especially graduate, post-graduate level working in "dual-use" high tech areas) - academics, scientists (PhD on up) especially on high tech. - engineers, business people (targets as above) - journalists (usually official news agencies) also useful for influence spreading - pro-China Australian citizens (including some politicians) - "diplomats" and defence attaches (may be involved in directing and debriefing those categories above), See article below. - Chinese, China based government officials of all types active in directing and/or debriefing Chinese (or non-Chinese Aussies?) travellers/residents, who were/are/will be, in Australia. Intelligence gathering is a standard assumption. Intelligence might more often be collected in fragments (ie. bit by bit collection from all sources and methods). This is in contrast to the popular assumption of fully paid-up, dedicated human agents/moles (often with false identities) in the John le Carré "Soviet bloc tradition". Other Chinese activities-objectives may include: - spreading pro-Beijing political influence through "Agents of Influence". More specifically China may influence Australian politics and perhaps compromise Australian politicians (recent concern?), and - security monitoring by Chinese diplomats (helped by informants) of any/all of the Chinese groups while in Australia. This is monitoring particulary of Chinese deemed to be involved in: : anti-Beijing Government causes : anti-Communist ; pro-democracy : pro-Tibet : Falun Gong or : some Christian influences). China is not the only security/influence/intelligence threat to Australia, of course. BACKGROUND AND ARTICLE
Regarding Chinese Government special political and intelligence activity in Australia, 2008 to the present. In 2008 Chinese diplomats organised and payed costs of at least 10,000 pro-Beijing supporters (Chinese students) (see photo above). The students travelled 100's of kms, from Sydney and Melbourne to Canberra (Australia's capital). This was for a 2 hour "spontaneous" loyalty demonstration. Pro-Tibet democracy protesters were crowded out and intimidated as were Australian police. The occasion was the pro-Beijing Olympics (2008) Torch Relay. Location was the usually Australian Federal Government controlled Federal Triangle, Canberra, 24 April 2008. Just imagine if the Australian Embassy tried to do the same "support" protest organising in Beijing? Tiananmen Square II? (Photo courtesyGetty images).
“Chinese spies in Australia on the rise, former
diplomat Chen Yonglin says”
Yonglin, the Chinese diplomat who sensationally quit his job [at the
Chinese consulate in Sydney Australia, in 2005] more than a decade ago, has
broken a lengthy silence to warn of a growing number of spies and agents
working for Beijing in Australia.
- Chen Yonglin successfully sought political
asylum in Australia after resigning his diplomat role
- Warned more that 1,000 Chinese spies in
- Says "majority of Chinese community
representatives" work for [Chinese] Government
- In 2005, Mr Chen caused global headlines when he
claimed China was operating a network of
"over 1,000 Chinese secret agents
and informants in Australia".
The former diplomat, who now works as a businessman, [Chen]
has warned the number of secretive Chinese operatives has steadily grown since
he stopped working for China's foreign service.
"There should be some increase after over 10 years
because China is now the wealthiest government in the world, they should have
money, they should be [able] to afford raise a huge number of spies here,"
he told ABC News.
He stressed the increase was mainly in casual informants
who provided crucial pieces of intelligence to Beijing.
Since successfully seeking political asylum in Australia,
Mr Chen said he had become growingly concerned about Beijing's influence in his
He believes that of particular concern is last year's
decision to approve a 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to Chinese-owned company Landbridge [presumably this will be a great job opening for Chinese Military Intelligence, performing under cover in Darwin. Great job :]
The above photograph depicts US General Westmoreland, Commander, US Military Assistance Command Vietnam, speaking to Aussie troopers, C Squadron, 1st Armoured Regiment about the enemy attack (in 1968)on Fire Support Base Coral, Vietnam. (Photo Australian Army)
Australia is a dedicated supporter of US military ventures overseas (photos above). Australia spends a reasonable amount of money on defence - at 1.9% of GDP. Australia stands to gain from US armed forces and defence budget expansion.
Japan has its own foreign and defence policy traditions and attitudes. However, I would say, that to maintain full US support in Northeast Asia Japan will need to:
- support US ventures overseas (especially in the Middle East, a region that produces
The [Australian] Federal Government says Australia is well positioned to take advantage of a "gigantic" expansion of the United States military flagged by the incoming Trump administration.
[Australian] Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also downplayed the prospect of the US demanding Australia increase its spending as a percentage of GDP.
Rudy Giuliani flags an aggressive expansion of America's military
Government says as a close ally with the US the country is well positioned to benefit from the expansion
Christopher Pyne says Australia is "pulling its weight" in both military spending and operations
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is reportedly a leading contender to become the next US Secretary of State, flagged an aggressive expansion of American forces.
Mr Pyne said Australia's strong links with the US would benefit defence manufacturing at home.
He told a submarine industry conference in Canberra, based on comments by Donald Trump, a half-a-trillion-dollar expansion of the US military was possible. "A hundred new planes, 70 new naval vessels, 50 to 60,000 new army, 12 new marine corps, the opportunities for Australia, because of our very close relationship with the United States, are boundless," he said.
"We already have amazing companies like Austal and CEA and others that are part of the US military spend, they could expand."
Mr Pyne said Australia was "pulling its weight" not just in military spending but in terms of military operations with the US.
"President-elect Trump has called countries around the world who are US allies and are not at 2 per cent [of spending] strategic bludgers," Mr Pyne said.
"Fortunately we are not strategic bludgers because we are at 2 per cent of gross domestic product, and given the spend of the Turnbull Government over the next 10 years, I imagine that will be surpassed at some stage in the future."
He said the Government was staying "in close contact" with Mr Trump's transition team.
"We are very much linked into the Trump team," Mr Pyne said.
Mr Giuliani earlier this week said Mr Trump's military strategy was focused around "peace through strength".
"If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetrical warfare, they may challenge you, but I doubt it," Mr Giuliani said.
Transition Team is divided the work into two areas: "agency action" led
by Ron Nicol (a former
nuclear submarine officer) and "policy implementation"….The
agency side, which oversees appointments, is divided into six arenas. Three relevant
to Submarine Matters are:
This depth-map indicates the choke-points (narrows) where both NATO submarines entered the Mediterranean Sea, ie. the US Virginia class through the Strait of Gibralter (on the map, extreme left) and the Dutch Walrus class (lower, right corner) near Port Said, Egypt.
WALRUS (SSK) AND VIRGINIA (SSN) DETECTION DETAILS
Various Russian sensors were involved in the recent detection of two NATO submarines. Sensors included:
- publically admitted, over-water (ASW helicopters) and surface ASW ships (see BACKGROUND)
- (more secretly) Russian Kilo submarines, near stopped, operating at choke-points.
- equally secret were seafloor sensor arrays used: near the Strait of Gibraltar; another north of Port
GRU was already aware that the Dutch sub, after Indian Ocean regional ops, had then transited the Suez Canal from south to north with a known time of emerging into the Med. This made it quite easy for a Kilo (from the Black Sea fleet) to cue or "rendezvous" with the Dutch sub. This Kilo gained valuable intelligence on characteristics of some upgrade work done on the Dutch sub.
The US Virginia class SSN had earlier been (predictably) tailing the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group from a range of 70km. As the Virginia class sub transited the Strait of Gibraltar (traveling from west to east into the Med) it was detected by a fixed seabed sensor array (perhaps in cooperation with local assistance). The detection was later confirmed by Russian helicopter dipping sonars (active) and ship bow sonars.
GRU further reported that, by their behaviour, the Walrus and Virginia class subs positively detected the presence of the Kilo subs.
"(MOSCOW, Nov. 9 (UPI)) -- A Dutch submarine attempted to
spy on a Russian aircraft carrier after approaching it in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.
The Northern Fleet's anti-submarine ships forced the sub
to leave the area near Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, spokesman
Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.
"The clumsy attempts to carry out dangerous manoeuvres in the direct proximity of the Russian group of warships could have
led to grave navigation consequences," he said.
He said two anti-submarine ships, Severomorsk and the
Vice-Admiral Kulakov, at 6:50 a.m. spotted a Dutch navy sub, which neared the
Northern Fleet's aircraft carrier group for surveillance purposes."
He said the crews "easily identified the submarine
that was 20 kilometers [12.5 miles] away using the standard onboard
hydroacoustics systems and data obtained from anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27
PL. Despite the submarine's attempts to evade surveillance, a stable
hydroacoustic contact was established with it."
Konashenkov said they monitored the submarine for more
than an hour and forced it to leave the carrier group.
"It is noteworthy that submarines of such class,
having big displacement, are not fit for reconnaissance," the spokesman
The ministry official also said the Russian navy's
aircraft carrier group regularly spotted NATO's submarines on its way to the
Earlier this month, he said the USS Virginia was trying
to spy on Russian vessels.
Last month, Russia's Northern Fleet's the Kuznetsov
aircraft carrier, accompanied by the Pyotr Veliky battle cruiser, the Severomorsk
and Kulakov, and support vessel were sent to the Mediterranean to hold drills
and strengthen capabilities."