Did Israel throw ROCKS at Iran?

I would like to leave the geo-political issues of the 2024 Israel-Iran confrontation here and here to political experts (I only have a major in international relations). Though my opinion is that Iran has its own perception as a major player in the Middle East, and had to 'demonstrate' its power to strike Israel.

300 Iranian one-way UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles are a lot. It would overwhelm most unprepared nations, and cause thousands of casualties. 

The Iranians did prewarn the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians and Iraqis. So Israel, the US and NATO had plenty of warning to set up combat air patrols and pre-position their warships that have SAMs and AAA. We are also not certain which weapons Iran used, and they could have used older weapons that had a higher chance of interception or failure. 

But people were going to be killed - no one, including the IDF, expected Israel's integrated aerospace defense system, in conjunction with allies' fighters and air defense, would stop 99% of the weapons.

Nevatim Airbase (believed to be a storage site for nuclear weapons) is probably one of the better-guarded sites in Israel. So Iran scoring a couple of ballistic missile hits on it is high on Iran's 'achievement' list, not the fact that little damage was caused. The one video of incoming I have seen shows ballistic, unguided munitions, so they may have not been a priority for Israel's Iron Dome or David's Sling SAMs.

I think Iran lucked out - with little damage and no deaths in Israel. Israel could have  responded in a number of ways, from using a remote control machine gun within Iran to a rain of nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles.

Instead the IDF choose to throw 3 ROCKS at Iran.

The Rafael ROCKS.

Image: Rafael/IDF of a ROCKS test missile - nicely done up in telemetry/unarmed red with black and white checks.
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The ROCKS Autonomous Extended Stand-Off Range Air-to-Surface Missile was first shown at Aero India 2019, and according to its sales brochure, has anti-radiation features and uses an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to work in GPS-denied areas.

ROCKS is likely a variant of Rafael's Sparrow Ballistic target missile, which is a two stage missile air-launched from an F-15. As this article in the Financial Times shows, spent first-stage boosters were found in Wasit Province, in eastern Iraq, about 560km West of the Isfahan target area, on the night of Israel's retaliation.

image: Rafael of Sparrow target ballistic missiles
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The Financial Times article highlights IDF attacks on Syrian air defense positions. Then came the Israel aircraft crossing into Syrian airspace that actually fired the missile(s) at the Isfahan Air Base. There were early Iranian reports that it shot down 3 Israeli drones over the Isfahan area. If there were any such drones they were likely decoys or EW lures to mask the real ballistic missile action.

The Times of Israel published an article based on a New York Times report that claims Iran did not detect the incoming missile, and it damaged a 30N6E2 target-engagement radar or the S-300PMU2 battery protecting the airbase.

So Israel basically replied to Iran 'hey, you fired 300 weapons at me, 1% hit and caused minor damage, while I fired 3 or 4 missiles that penetrated your air defenses and took out a S-300 radar at your most sensitive airbase/facility. You wanna play a game of missile polo?" I have nukes and lots (probably) of conventional Jericho and Popeye Turbo missiles, so u wanna bet on whether Tel Aviv or Tehran ends up the smoking radioactive crater?!'

So I hope that we are backing off (again) from nuclear brinkmanship (Pete predicts there will be a second strike on Iran that might precede Israel's invasion of Rafah, in Gaza). But the true winners of this missile ping-pong will be Rafael and Raytheon, who will enjoy massive sales of air defence equipment this year - as countries replenish expanded stock, and to better protect themselves.

ANZAC Day 2024

Australia and New Zealand commemorates ANZAC Day on April 25th each year. It is our secular "holiest" day. The day remembers the sacrifice of troops of the combined Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) in World War One and of Australians and New Zealanders who fought in all later wars. 

The following are songs and photos I've put together to remember them.

Anzacs (or 'diggers') at Gallipoli in a rare quiet moment in 1915. Gallipoli's field Hospital tents were  constantly being shelled by the Turks, because the Turks knew (and it was true) that ammunition was actually being stored in some of those tents... Much safer for the wounded to be taken to nearby ships and then to nearby islands, like Lemnos.
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My Grandfather, Staff Sergeant G. Leo A Coates, working at the 1st Australian Stationary Hospital on Lemnos. 1915. He's doing an X-ray of a bullet in the soldier's leg. My grandfather copped a lot of X-rays (decades later dying of cancer) as there was no lead operator shielding, only a canvas curtain. My grandfather then shifted to Gallipoli later in 1915. (Donor Royal Australasian College of Surgeons - Photo courtesy AWM Archive Store).
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This great song And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda by Eric Bogle is about the life of a digger wounded at Gallipoli.

There is a myth that true Anzacs were and are all front line infantry. Some other occupations were actually more dangerous than infantry. Pilots often suffered the highest casualties of any service with about a quarter dying in training then another quarter in combat. Submariners, were often in the greatest danger both from the enemy and also from accidents (together killing about a half of submariners in total). Here is the Navy Hymn for Submariners.

Here and above the hymn Abide With Me is traditionally sung at ANZAC Day services. The singer is Hayley Westernra from Christchurch, New Zealand.

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Iconic Vietnam War photo by Michael Coleridge. Diggers of 5 Platoon, B Company, 7RAR, waiting for Iroquois helicopters to land and return them back Nui Dat at the end of an operation.

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 The song I Was Only 19 (by that under-appreciated Australian group Redgum) is in memory of Australians who fought, died and were injured in Vietnam (early 1960s to 1972).

Here and above. I think Eric Bogle’s The Green Fields of France (also known as "No Man's Land" and "Willie McBride)  (above) is the best anti-war song ever written. As a haunting poem, march, song of love and injustice it is a fitting anthem to remember the men and women, living and dead, who are our people,  our Anzacs.

A Remembrance poppy.

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The Ode For The Fallen (lines 13 to 16) - here and above.
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Collins LOTE Now Budgeted. Saab, LM & MTU.

The Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been little discussed of late drawing suspicions it may be cancelled like many RAN ship and submarine projects. However I consulted the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) website which has recently added more certainty to the LOTE project, budget and all. 

See https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines    

"...Australia's Collins Class submarine fleet will undergo a life-of-type extension (LOTE) at Osborne shipyard in South Australia. 

The LOTE will keep the Collins Class submarine operationally capable and available into the 2040s, supporting the transition to Australia's nuclear-powered submarines.

Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion

Timeframe: First LOTE scheduled for mid-2026

Industry: more than 1500 jobs

Location: Osborne South Australia (LOTE) and Henderson Western Australia (sustainment)" 

PETE COMMENT

The estimated range of the Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion (Australian dollars) is clearly quite broad. 

Some defence commenters, with some accuracy, claim it is best to triple an Australian government defence program budget estimate due to the many uncertainties impacting multi-year projects. Such uncertainties include:

-  shortage of skilled shipbuilding labour in the "white" Western world generally (meaning higher wages than intended are required to attract labour). No such shortage exists in Northeast Asian countries.

-  higher than expected inflation, which has already hit Australia since January 2023

-  project deadlines not met, part caused by:

-  the Australian defence industry tendency to add many more upgrade items "bells and whistles" than originally envisaged.

So the new "Rule of Triples" ((you saw it coined here first) in Australian budgeting may mean (with 2 years of LOTEing for each of the 6 Collins = 12 years) by 2038 the budget may well balloon to between A$13 Billion and A$19 Billion.

Some might now say - "well if LOTEing costs that much why don't we buy/build a new class of Interim Conventional Submarines?

To which I counter: 

It would take about 3 years (ie. by 2027) for the Australian Government to summon up the support for New Conventional Submarines.

Then 2 years minimum to choose the foreign main contractor (2029).

Then the Build in Osborne Political Reality (ie. no whole sub foreign build) pans out to Signing the Contract (2030).

Then the always slow Osborne build takes 15 years (2045) until first of class is launched.

Then 2 years ironing out working up bugs until Commissioning first of class (2047).

Then each successive submarine in a class of 6 would take around 18 months to build ie. launched in June 2048, Dec 2049, June 2051, Dec 2052 and June 2054).

The kicker is these New Conventional "Interim" Submarine timing realities would directly clash with the SSN-AUKUS timings which may start to be built in Osborne in 2042. Osborne simply wouldn't simultaneously build 2 types of submarines unless in a runup and during World War Three (maybe China and Russia vs Democracies including Australia). But I digress.

So LOTEing makes sense especially if Saab Kockums is involved, in part because Saab did the Mid-Life Upgrade of Sweden's Gotland-class, similar to Collins in significant ways. A new Combat System for the Collins, integrated by Lockheed Martin, may be a high price aspect. New diesels needed, probably MTU 4000s, will also be expensive. Submarines are always expensive.

Israel's Target List eg. Iranian Nuclear Facilities

Over the last 12 hours Israel began missile strikes on Iran, initially targeting an air base https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran near the Isfahan/Esfahan nuclear research center 400km south of Tehran. Depending on the Iranian reaction Israel may escalate the conflict to targeting Iranian nuclear sites over the next few days.

Created since the Israeli strike here and below is an excellent explanatory video from University of Pittsburgh Political Science Professor William Spaniel.

Possible Targets

The maps below indicate Iran's nuclear sites. The nuclear facilities in Tehran itself are particularly problematic because they are believed to be deep dug under that highly populated city. Is Israel prepared to justify the high "collateral" deaths of perhaps 1,000s of Tehran civilians? 

Also hitting surface reactors might cause Fukushima or Chernobyl style meltdowns and explosions spreading clouds of radioactive dust throughout the region. In the case of the very large Bushehr reactor complex, on the Persian Gulf, radioactive air and water dispersal might impact populations in the Gulf States including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 

Overall concerted air attacks on Iran would increase the world oil price sharply because the high oil producing Gulf States it between Israel and Iran. I filled my car's fuel tank yesterday - just in case. 

Other high priority Israeli targets may include Iran's leading politicians and generals, regular army, navy and air force bases and Revolutionary Guard bases.

Particularly drone missile bases. 

Any chemical weapon production and warhead facilities would be very high priority targets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons
 

Above Map of Iran's highest priority nuclear facilities. This includes the research complex at   Isfahan/Esfahan (from which Submarine Matters' site-meter years ago picked up Iranian reader interest in computer simulations of nuclear weapon explosions).

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See a more detailed nuclear facility map below (Courtesy Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-iran-nuclear-sites-2010-6 )

Since 2014 Iran has been near nuclear weapon breakout status - with the three components being:

- substantial stocks of semi-enriched uranium (perhaps between 5% and 20%), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#High-assay_LEU_(HALEU)  which could become bomb grade (90+% HEU) within weeks/months using Iran's thousands of centrifuges and possible hidden laser enrichment capability.

- delivery means - including the Sejjil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejjil solid fuel IRBMs within range of Israel, and

- enough nuclear device plans and components acquired from Pakistan's A. Q. Khan network to have constructed crude fission devices (minus the HEU and/or Plutonium explosive) around 2006.

For much more Iranian nuclear program history and details see: 

-  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons

and

-   https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/iran-nuclear/#recent

India Has 2 Stage Thermonuclear Weapons

For some years my friend and long distance mental sparing partner, Ghalib Kabir, have been debating how far India has progressed in thermonuclear weapons.

Ghalib last argued here on March 22, 2024:

“My sense is Agni V very likely could sport 3 x 60-80 kt boosted fission warheads and a number of decoys. Not a bad start. I did hear 3 is likely the realistic number due to certain pertaining issues (likely miniaturization, warhead design-> yield related issues)

I know you set store by Israel or Russia sharing data for Indian 'cold tests'... however such a thing is unlikely as such a support would be 'too juicy' for known India baiters in the western and local 'non proliferation menagerie' to let go.”

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I (Pete) counter-argue:

I recognize it is part of the deal India made, with the Western powers, that India (at the public level) minimises its achievements in nuclear device progress.

This was one of the terms the West required when it generally accepted India, by 2010, as a semi-legal member of the nuclear weapons Club.

I have heard offline that there is no way India's top political leadership would permit India's nuclear program to lag 57 years behind India's largest opponent, China's. Meaning it is 57 years since 1967, the year China tested a three-staged thermonuclear device - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Test_No._6

Boosted fission weapons alone are simply old school, with several downsides. Two stage thermonuclear devices can be miniaturised far smaller - with higher yields - and permit more MIRVs than alleged 3 x 60-80 kt boosted fission warheads.

See https://web.archive.org/web/20171024045228/http://pib.nic.in:80/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=52814  
"The two-stage thermonuclear device, with a fusion-boosted fission trigger as the first stage and with the features needed for integration with delivery vehicles, was tested at the controlled yield of 45 kt and had the purpose of developing nuclear weapons with yields up to around 200 kt [on May 11, 1998 as "Shakti-I" being one of five nuclear tests at Operation Shakti/Pokhran-II] .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II#Specifications_and_detonation
Shakti I was “A thermonuclear device yielding 45 kt, but designed for up to 200 kt. The yield of this device was deliberately kept low in order to avoid civilian damage and to eliminate the possibility of a [dangerous and detectable] radioactive leak." 

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon#India
"After the Pokhran-II tests, Rajagopala Chidambaram, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India said that India has the capability to build thermonuclear bombs of any yield at will." [Actual quote above from here https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/18/world/nuclear-anxiety-the-overview-india-detonated-a-hydrogen-bomb-experts-confirm.html ]

 

Diagrams courtesy Brittanica.
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Conclusion

I’ve now come to the conclusion that we are both right. The “boosted fission” weapon Ghalib talks of was the Primary Stage setting off a Secondary Sage of an Indian Two stage thermonuclear device at the “Shakti-I” Test. See diagrams above.

New NATO Country Sweden's Ship & Sub Challenges

Indomitable commentator Shawn Chung discussed offline Sweden's Chief of Navy Rear Admiral Ewa Ann-Sofi Haslum talking about updates in the Youtube here and below. 

 

The Chief of the Swedish Navy spoke to Naval News on the side-lines of Sydney's Indo-Pacific 2023 and Sea Power Conference, held in November 2023. Like most senior Swedish officers she speaks English clearly. 4:50 in she foreshadows Sweden will eventually order the "[A]30...next generation submarine" to eventually replace the A26 Blekinge-class. She spoke about the challenges the Swedish Navy is facing, especially with NATO membership and seabed warfare. One the latter she talked about the sabotage of the NordStream undersea gas pipelines. 

[Pete Comment: The US has been implacably opposed to these pipelines delivering Russian gas to Europe. The relative lack of West European curiosity as to who blew up those pipelines on Sept 26, 2022 might suggest the country with the motive and best equipment to do so.]

Sweden will be eventually replacing the 73m long Visby-class large patrol boat sized vessel with the future >100m long large corvette sized Lulea-class future surface combatant, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/06/swedens-future-surface-combatant-to-be-known-as-lulea-class/ which looks a bit like some of the designs that were bandied about for Singapore's future MRCVs.  

Little is known about the Lulea-class (which has four ships named after Swedish coastal cities) - the size and capabilities are unknown, except it will be larger than a standard  corvette (over 100m), as Sweden now will participate in NATO naval missions. The Swedish Navy also wants the ships from 2030, which is quite a rush.. like the 6 MRCVs (from 2028), so we may find out at a later date that the Lulea-class hulls could be produced in Denmark, or Singapore, and delivered to Saab Kockums for outfitting. 

Saab Kockums has a three decade relationship with Singapore - The Bedok-class mine countermeasure vessels are Landsort-class variants. Singapore emptied out Kockum's used submarine yard by buying the Sjoormen-class (renamed Challenger-class) in the late 1990s, and two Vastergotland (now the Archer-class) in the 2010s. Saab Kockums also contributed to the design of the Independence-class littoral mission vessel. 

I also reckon that the Swedish government was lining up Singapore to buy into the A26, but the various issues with Kockums in 2014 (then owned by TKMS) scuppered any deal. Sweden basically lost over $3 billion that would have kickstarted the A26 program.

Further Background

Wiki advises "In January 2021 Saab Kockums was awarded a contract for the product definition phase of the Visby gen 2 corvettes by the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV). These [still patrol boat sized] ships were intended to be an evolved version of the Visby-class corvettes currently in service with the Swedish Navy. 

However, a rapidly changing geopolitical situation in large part due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and Sweden's subsequent application to join NATO led to the cancellation of the Visby gen 2 in favour of a clean sheet design, the [corvette sized, with many more missiles] Luleå class."